Market Commentary
Positioning for Potential Rate Hikes
What forty years of tightening cycles say about stocks, bonds, and the portfolio you already own.
Investment Insights.
Weekly commentary on markets, the economy, and investor behavior. Principle-based, not prediction-based. Published on Substack.
Anchor Pieces
If you're new here, start with these.
Three foundational pieces that capture how I think about markets, forecasting, and the long-term investor’s job. Hand-picked, not chronological.
Long-Term Perspective
May 11, 2026 · 9 min read
Free
Where Could the Dow Be in 30 Years?
What 97 years of S&P 500 history tell us about the next 30. The case for time in the market over timing it — with the math.
Read on Substack →
The Investor’s Advocate
April 21, 2026 · 8 min read
Free
Experts Are Having Another Tough Year
How Wall Street keeps missing the rallies that follow the scare — and why pessimism almost always sounds smarter than it pays.
Read on Substack →
Model Portfolios
April 14, 2026 · 11 min read
Paid
Introducing the InvestmentInsights.com Model Portfolios
Five principle-based strategies for every type of self-directed investor — from conservative income to aggressive growth.
Read on Substack →
Recent · Auto-Updated from Substack
Recent commentary.
Pulled live from the Substack feed. New posts appear here within an hour of publishing. Click any post to read the full piece on Substack.
Market Commentary
Monthly Market Commentary | September 3, 2026
The Answer the Bond Market Was Waiting For
Investment Principles
Asking the Wrong Questions
Ten questions no one can answer - and five that actually matter
Education
Commodities: A Speculative Diversifier, Not a Core Holding
All that glitters isn't gold: what commodities can, and can't, do in a portfolio.
Market Commentary
All Gloom, No Doom
Consumer sentiment is worse than 98 percent of the last 48 years. Is the gloom justified?
Market Commentary
The Boys Will Be Home by Christmas
Every war is supposed to be short. Markets have learned to look past the forecast.
Market Commentary
Intelligence is Overrated
The smartest guy in the room built a hedge fund that peaked at $45 billion. It came apart in a…
Market Commentary
Stock Yields hit a 150-Year Low
Market Commentary
Monthly Commentary | August 3, 2026
A Flat Month That Wasn't
Market Commentary
Rookies Will Break Your Heart
Kevin Warsh had a rough second press conference. That is not a reason to worry about your portfolio.
Uncategorized
Model Portfolios: Q2 2026 Quarterly Commentary
Plus the Process Behind the Numbers
Market Commentary
Monthly Commentary | July 2, 2026
The Best Quarter Since 2020
Positioning for Potential Rate Hikes
September 8, 2026
What forty years of tightening cycles say about stocks, bonds, and the portfolio you already own.
Read on Substack →Monthly Market Commentary | September 3, 2026
September 3, 2026
The Answer the Bond Market Was Waiting For
Read on Substack →All Gloom, No Doom
August 17, 2026
Consumer sentiment is worse than 98 percent of the last 48 years. Is the gloom justified?
Read on Substack →The Boys Will Be Home by Christmas
August 14, 2026
Every war is supposed to be short. Markets have learned to look past the forecast.
Read on Substack →Intelligence is Overrated
August 10, 2026
The smartest guy in the room built a hedge fund that peaked at $45 billion. It came apart in a single week in July.
Read on Substack →Rookies Will Break Your Heart
July 30, 2026
Kevin Warsh had a rough second press conference. That is not a reason to worry about your portfolio.
Read on Substack →This Large-Cap Fund Has Outperformed the S&P 500 For 10 Years — at an Index-Fund Price
July 24, 2026
Executive Summary
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