Market Commentary
What a 73% Favorite Really Means
Prediction markets are pricing the midterms. The stock market has its own odds: it rose in 72 of the last…
Investment Insights
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Markets Economy
U.S. Debt Has Passed $40 Trillion. What It Means for Long-Term Investors
The federal debt is growing faster than the economy that supports it. Here is what it means for your portfolio.
Uncategorized
What Is a Neocloud, and Why Is Wall Street Suddenly Nervous About Them?
The AI boom's most leveraged companies carry heavy debt against fixed-price contracts. A lesson from the last bubble on why…
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Inside Our Model Portfolios: The Multifactor 60/40
How the portfolio is built, and how it held up in Q3 2026
Long Term Perspective
Profits Drive Prices: 98 Years of S&P 500 Earnings
Earnings are the magnet that has pulled stock prices higher over the long term.
Market Commentary
Forecasters Predict Because They're Asked
The most respected pollster in Iowa missed by 16 points. After 40 years in markets, I've stopped expecting forecasts to…
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Inside Our Model Portfolios: The Tax Aware 60/40
How the portfolio is built, and how it held up in Q3 2026
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The Investment Insights Archive: Every Article, Organized by Topic
Principle-based investing for long-term investors: Quick links to our Substack articles. Our fund research reports, model portfolios and more are…
Market Commentary
You Can't Predict Interest Rates, but You Can Prepare for Them
Eleven times since 1928 the 10-year yield rose a point or more in a year. Where it started decided how…
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Inside Our Model Portfolios: The Passive 60/40
How the portfolio is built, and how it held up in Q3 2026
Market Commentary
Monthly Market Commentary | October 1, 2026
The Bond Market Paid for September
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Inside the Portfolios: Stocks Our Managers Are Buying
A quarterly look inside the funds that meet our high standards. For research and education, not a shopping list.
Outlook and Opportunities
Learn MoreInvestor Academy — Guided by Principles
We believe that investment success requires discipline, patience, and a commitment to investment principles that have stood the test of time. Investment trends come and go, but these core values comprise our principle-based approach:
Maintain a Long-Term Perspective, Focus on Quality and Diversity Because the Future Is Uncertain
Links:
- Developing a Plan
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AI: The Coming Disruption, Part 1
Artificial Intelligence: What We Know, What We Don’t, and What it Means for Investors
The Case for Equities
Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds provide an efficient and accessible way for investors to own a diversified portfolio of common stocks.
Forecasting Follies
The tariff war is a short-term distraction for investors with long-term goals.
The Case for Global Diversification
International stocks provide investors with access to global markets, offering diversification beyond domestic equities.
Hedge Funds
Hedge Funds promise to “hedge” against market downturns, and participate in market rallies. But do they always deliver on their promise?
Don't Fear the Bear
Why stock market declines can be the long-term investor’s best friend.
Debt and Deficits: Perspectives for Investors
What Investors Need to Know about Debt and Deficits
When Being Average is Actually Really, Really Bad
Making small changes can lead to a big improvement in returns
The Rear-View Mirror Approach to Investing
Popular sources for fund ratings can sink your portfolio
Can the President Really Fire Jerome Powell?
We take a closer look at the Fed’s independence
The Investor’s Advocate
It Cost Investors Hundreds of Billions. Now a major protection just quietly went away.
Understanding the Stock Market
Part of our Financial Foundations Series
Reflections
Beyond the Numbers
Lessons from the Last Bubble: Just Because Everyone Repeats Something Doesn’t Make it True.
Remember “Internet Demand is Doubling Every 100 Days”?
Is a Stock Market Correction?
When the stock market reaches a new high, investors naturally wonder if a correction is imminent.
Are you an Investor or a Gambler?
Don’t Risk Your Future with Speculative Investments
Could Everything You Think About Tariffs and Inflation Be Wrong?
Why investors should resist the urge to panic
Is There Really an Affordability Crisis?
What the Numbers Say-And Who’s to Blame
What a 73% Favorite Really Means
October 24, 2026
Prediction markets are pricing the midterms. The stock market has its own odds: it rose in 72 of the last 98 years.
Read on Substack →U.S. Debt Has Passed $40 Trillion. What It Means for Long-Term Investors
October 22, 2026
The federal debt is growing faster than the economy that supports it. Here is what it means for your portfolio.
Read on Substack →What Is a Neocloud, and Why Is Wall Street Suddenly Nervous About Them?
October 19, 2026
The AI boom's most leveraged companies carry heavy debt against fixed-price contracts. A lesson from the last bubble on why a technology can win while its stocks lose.
Read on Substack →Inside Our Model Portfolios: The Multifactor 60/40
October 19, 2026
How the portfolio is built, and how it held up in Q3 2026
Read on Substack →Profits Drive Prices: 98 Years of S&P 500 Earnings
October 15, 2026
Earnings are the magnet that has pulled stock prices higher over the long term.
Read on Substack →Forecasters Predict Because They're Asked
October 14, 2026
The most respected pollster in Iowa missed by 16 points. After 40 years in markets, I've stopped expecting forecasts to be right, and I build portfolios that don't need them…
Read on Substack →